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WHO Says Pandemic Flu Monitor: Toll of H1N1 Will Take One to Two Years to Count After Cases Peak
Earlier this year, the World Health Organization (WHO) said the burden of testing for H1N1 was too great for poorer countries. The dollar cost was too high. Developing countries faced too many other challenges to effectively test, read and report results. They stopped trying.
…”These numbers (current world-wide death reports for H1N1) do not give a true picture of mortality during the pandemic, which is unquestionably higher than indicated by laboratory-confirmed cases,” the WHO said.
It will take two years, the U.N. agency says, before a more accurate estimate of the impact of this illness, its complications and deaths can be made with confidence.
This is one reason why public health officials world-wide have been so concerned and so cautious.
For the purposes of this pandemic, “younger adult” is defined as age 50. Most seasonal influenza deaths occur in patients in their last decades of life. Younger people have been hit harder.
Agencies also knew that whatever case confirmation counts they could get—regardless of whether the illness was mild to more acute—were much lower than the case count in any week because patients often did not call doctors.
“The H1N1 flu pandemic is moderate but infects and sometimes kills much younger people than traditional seasonal influenza, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday.
“Comparing the number of deaths from the pandemic virus known as swine flu with those from seasonal influenza can be misleading, the U.N. agency said.
“WHO continues to assess the impact of the influenza pandemic as moderate,” it said in a statement. “Accurate assessments of mortality and mortality rates will likely be possible only one to two years after the pandemic has peaked.” (Emphasis added)
Source: ABC News, December 22, 2009