There are five categories of pandemic, with one being comparable to seasonal flu and five being the most severe.

The experts are sending mixed messages about the anticipated impact of H1N1.

The CDC said last week it expected H1N1 to be more “virulent” than expected. WHO is even more concerned about severity.

This new statement from a Harvard infectious disease expert says the opposite, taking us back to the original prediction that this would be mild.

Reuters

“The death rate from the pandemic H1N1 swine flu is likely lower than earlier estimates, an expert in infectious diseases said on Wednesday.

“New estimates suggest that the death rate compares to a moderate year of seasonal influenza, said Dr Marc Lipsitch of Harvard University.

“It’s mildest in kids. That’s one of the really good pieces of news in this pandemic,” Lipsitch told a meeting of flu experts being held by the U.S. Institute of Medicine.

“Barring any changes in the virus, I think we can say we are in a category 1 pandemic. This has not become clear until fairly recently.”

“The Pandemic Severity Index set by the U.S. government has five categories of pandemic, with a category 1 being comparable to a seasonal flu epidemic.”