When several prominent epidemiologists predict the pandemic peak could come as early as October,  it is time to get serious about getting organized at work and home in case the pandemic makes you or people you live or work with ill.

The pandemic flu vaccine will not be ready for most people who need it by then.

Please remember that, while both seasonal and pandemic influenzas are Type A, the pandemic flu also includes avian and swine strains as well. Do not think the seasonal flu shot will protect you in the pandemic. If you are lucky enough to get the pandemic vaccine, do not skip the seasonal flu shot, of which there should be an adequate supply.

Experts are in total agreement on this point. This is not the year to say you “don’t believe” in the flu shot. Unfortunately, there are care-givers who skip the shot. They ought to be embarrassed.

Discuss with your doctor any reservations you may have. “I take it and still get the flu.” You may need a booster later in the season.

New York Times

“Several prominent epidemiologists are warning that even though the new swine flu vaccine works much better than expected, it will still come too late to blunt the peak of this season’s pandemic. (Emphasis added)

The epidemiologists said Friday that they expected the peak to come as early as next month, long before enough vaccine to protect all 159 million Americans who need it most will be ready. (Emphasis added)

“It would be bizarre for it to peak in January or February, the way seasonal flu does,” said Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health and a consultant on flu epidemics to the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

“Dr. Lipsitch noted that the pandemics of 1918 and 1957, which were also caused by new viral strains, had both peaked early. Influenza cases are usually near zero at this time of year, but Friday’s weekly report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention rated flu activity as “widespread” in 11 states, mostly in the Southeast but also in Arizona, Alaska and Oklahoma. (Widespread is the highest of five levels.)

“Dr. Anne Schuchat, the agency’s chief of immunization and respiratory diseases, said 98 percent of those flu cases were the new H1N1 swine flu.”

Source: New York Times, September 11, 2009