Yesterday the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a lengthy statement, which appeared to be signaling the organization was getting ready to predict the pandemic could be very severe. This statement did not go that far but it had plenty of warnings.

Leading American infectious disease experts  do not read the latest pandemic flu data the same way the WHO does.

Although things can change, as of now, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health, says that this pandemic should not be “anything near” the 1918 pandemic.

All public health officials must say every time…but things could change.

What should you think?

- Do everything you can to prevent getting sick.

- Should you get sick, call your doctor and stay away from others who are not sick.

- Prepare to be at home by having the kinds of supplies you would need for about two weeks.

Although TPR has made this point before, it is important to say it again in light of WHO’s Friday statement.

Public health officials have to make their calls in epidemics and pandemics, using information and patterns from prior threats, coupled with their best reading of what the current data seems to saying. Experience counts, too.

If officials issue warnings but the threat proves not to be as severe as feared, the public can respond cynically.  All that fuss over nothing. The fact is, it did not look as if it was going to be “nothing” at that time. To do less preparation for something worse would  be irresponsible.

If they issue warnings which are too cautious, and the situation proves worse than predicted, people wonder why they weren’t doing their jobs.

- A pandemic virus has a structure and characteristics. That strain can mutate right this minute or never.

- We cannot possibly be harmed by learning how to prepare for a serious pandemic because, one year, we will have one. That is the way nature works, in cycles.

- We cannot possibly by harmed by being reminded what prevention strategies work and following through on them.

- We cannot possibly be harmed by schools, businesses and governments having plans in place which can be used in any kind of situation, natural or man-made, which could profoundly affect their communities and businesses.

If the world catches a break this time, especially  given the recent economic upheavals, that would be very good news indeed. A severe pandemic would have negative financial consequences along with medical ones.

The other good news would be: We have done a drill so as to be ready the next time.

ABC

“The World Health Organization warned Friday that doctors around the world are now reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs of otherwise healthy young people — but some infectious disease experts said the alarm could be unwarranted.

A nurse carries test for H1N1 influenza on a woman on Aug. 21, 2009 at the Noumea flu treatment center. Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said.

…”But infectious disease experts from both inside and outside the (U.S) government say that the phrasing used by WHO raises some questions — particularly because the existence of such a form of the disease is not a new development.”

…“And Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health, one of the government’s preeminent figures on swine flu, told ABC News’ Brian Hartman, “The severity should not be anything near what we saw in 1918 — again, underscoring that things can change.

“But if what we’re seeing now is predictive of what we’ll be seeing in the fall and the winter this looks like a mild to moderate, not a very severe, pandemic.”

Source: ABC News, August 29, 2009