In the first formal report of the most likely impact of the pandemic on Americans in the coming flu season, researchers concluded that as many as half of Americans may need medical attention.

Death estimates range from 30,000 (not untypical in a regular flu season) to 90,000 at the high end.

The story says that the panel used information about:

- Previous  pandemics.

- Statistics on how the swine flu behaved in the United States this spring and during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter over the past few months.

- One expert quoted in the story said  that this pandemic still could be mild, but he cautioned that people should be prepared in case it is not.

Are we going to have the pandemic peak before people can get vaccinated? Only Mother Nature knows that.

The vaccine production is in process, but as a practical matter, the pandemic could peak before the vaccine is ready to ship. That’s not a screw-up on anyone’s part.

The Post’sfull story explains what is happening with vaccines.

Washington Post

“Swine flu could infect half the U.S. population this fall and winter, hospitalizing up to 1.8 million people and causing as many as 90,000 deaths — more than double the number that occur in an average flu season, according to an estimate from a presidential panel released Monday.

“The virus could cause symptoms in 60 million to 120 million people, more than half of whom might seek medical attention, the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology estimated in an 86-page report to the White House assessing the government’s response to the first influenza pandemic in 41 years.

“Although most of the cases probably would be mild, up to 300,000 people could require intensive care, which could tie up all those beds in some parts of the country at the peak of the outbreak, the council said.

“This is going to be fairly serious,” said Harold E. Varmus of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York, co-chair of the 21-member council. “It’s going to stress every aspect of our health system.” (Emphasis added)

Source: Washington Post, August 25, 2009